Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
15 active17 stale32 sources
16
/ 100
→ StableYELLOW?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
1 active disinformation campaign
HEIGHTENED
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
1 HIGH20 MOD3 LOW
Alabino trainingBaltiysk navalBaranovichi Belarus✈15Brest garrisonBryansk stagingDonskoye missilesGrodno garrisonGusev garrisonKaliningrad Chkalovsk✈12Kamenka 138th MRBKlintsy stagingKronstadt navalLevashovo airbase✈12Luga 6th CAAMachulishchy Belarus✈4Osipovichi storagePskov 76th VDVShaykovka airbase✈12Smolensk airbase✈12Strugi KrasnyeYelnya garrison
3 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Detected Operations · 30 days?Coordinated information operations detected by analyzing cross-platform signal patterns.
7 active🔍 Hostile framing of US envoy's statements to legitimize Lukashenko and downplay Ukraine…
HIGHRussian state media emphasizes the meeting between Lukashenko and Cole, highlighting Cole's statements that…
2026-03-2111 sources tracked
🔍 Omission of Russian involvement in shadow fleet activities
MEDIUMRT reports that Sweden intercepted the Comoros-flagged tanker Sea Owl I in the Baltic Sea, suspected of lacking…
2026-03-212 sources tracked
🔍 Systematic doubt-casting and downplaying of airspace violation
HIGHRussian state media reports that Estonia 'stated' or 'accused' Russia of violating its airspace, often using hedging…
2026-03-2114 sources tracked
🔍 Coordinated amplification of Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric to portray alliance as failing…
MEDIUMRussian state media extensively covers Trump's statements, emphasizing his criticisms of NATO, his doubts about allies'…
2026-03-2115 sources tracked
📡 Trusted media amplifies Russia-as-culture-weapon narrative across 3 Baltic categories
MEDIUMWATCH detected: score 5/12, organic_spread_102h + 3_categories + slow_cascade_24h
2026-03-219 sources tracked
🔍 Fabricated quote to portray US-Europe disunity
HIGHRussian state media focuses on Stubb's concern that the US is shifting its attention from Ukraine to Iran, and TASS…
2026-03-2110 sources tracked
🔄 Manufactured outrage: tass_ru/rt_russian creates 4-article reaction chain over…
MEDIUM2 outrage escalations from tass_ru, rt_russian in 8h
2026-03-214 sources tracked
📡 Widespread Mobile Internet Outages Are Lawful and Needed for… — Injection cascade:…
RESOLVED2026-03-216 sources tracked
🔍 Omission of official apology to control narrative
RESOLVED2026-03-2114 sources tracked
🔍 Systematic omission of public discontent regarding livestock culling
RESOLVED2026-03-2111 sources tracked
875detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
2HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
630ships tracked?Ships transmit AIS signals with position and identity.
Baltic Maritime · 24h
Vessel activity in the Baltic Sea, including sanctions-evading tankers
2892aircraft?ADS-B transponder data for military and government aircraft.
Military Flights · 24h
Russian military and government aircraft tracked near the Baltics
4Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
LOW
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Latvian Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for Latvia
Latvian Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Real-time electricity production vs consumption. Deficit = importing power
-207MW deficit
Prod: 646 MWCons: 853 MW
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Latvia.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events relevant to Latvia12 normal
| Category | Indicator | Finding | Conf | ↗ |
|---|
Threat Index History
How the overall threat score has changed — higher = more concerning
Signal Volume
How many data points we collected per day, by source type
RSSTelegramAISGPS JamOther
Indicator Breakdown
Daily count of security indicators by severity