Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
15 active17 stale32 sources
14
/ 100
→ StableGREEN?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
1 active disinformation campaign
HEIGHTENED
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
1 HIGH20 MOD3 LOW
Alabino trainingBaltiysk navalBaranovichi Belarus✈15Brest garrisonBryansk stagingDonskoye missilesGrodno garrisonGusev garrisonKaliningrad Chkalovsk✈12Kamenka 138th MRBKlintsy stagingKronstadt navalLevashovo airbase✈12Luga 6th CAAMachulishchy Belarus✈4Osipovichi storagePskov 76th VDVShaykovka airbase✈12Smolensk airbase✈12Strugi KrasnyeYelnya garrison
3 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Detected Operations · 30 days?Coordinated information operations detected by analyzing cross-platform signal patterns.
5 activeEVENT Finnish President Alexander Stubb commented on Europe's potential military assistance to the US in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for US support for…
STATE SPIN Russian state media focuses on Stubb's concern that the US is distracted by Iran, potentially neglecting Ukraine. TASS specifically claims Europe refu…
EVENT Donald Trump stated that NATO faces a 'bad future' if allies do not assist the US in the conflict with Iran, and criticized NATO members for not suppo…
STATE SPIN Russian state media extensively covers Trump's statements, emphasizing the 'bad future' of NATO, the lack of allied support for the US in Iran, and th…
EVENT An Estonian official reported that a Russian Su-30 fighter jet briefly entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo island on March 18th, leading to Estoni…
STATE SPIN Russian state media reports on Estonia's claim of airspace violation, often using phrases like 'allegedly' (якобы) or 'as claimed' (как утв…
EVENT A Polish court approved the extradition of Russian archaeologist Alexander Butyagin to Ukraine, where he is wanted for illegal excavations in Russian-…
STATE SPIN Russian state media consistently frames the extradition decision as 'political,' lacking legal basis, and a threat to Butyagin's life and health. They…
EVENT NATO's mission in Iraq was relocated to Europe, with troops departing Iraq.
STATE SPIN TASS reports that NATO evacuated all troops from Iraq to Europe, citing General Alexus Grinkevich (who does not exist) and stating the mission will co…
EVENT US Special Envoy John Cole visited Minsk and Vilnius for talks with Belarusian President Lukashenko and Lithuanian officials.
STATE SPIN Russian state media focuses on Cole's meeting with Lukashenko, highlighting the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian entities and suggesting a potential…
EVENT Governor of Novosibirsk region, Andrey Travnikov, commented on the forced culling of livestock due to outbreaks of pasteurellosis and rabies, stating …
STATE SPIN Russian state media focuses on the governor's statements about the necessity of the measures, the absence of food shortages, the effectiveness of the …
EVENT The US announced the lifting of sanctions on several Belarusian banks and potash companies following negotiations with Belarus, which included the rel…
STATE SPIN Russian state media reports the lifting of sanctions by the US on Belarusian banks and potash companies, citing US Special Envoy John Coale after his …
EVENT Authorities in Novosibirsk Oblast are completing the forced culling of livestock due to a pasteurellosis outbreak and are providing compensation to af…
STATE SPIN Russian state media focuses on the successful completion of livestock culling in large farms, the absence of new pasteurellosis cases, and the ongoing…
875detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
2HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
617ships tracked?Ships transmit AIS signals with position and identity.
Baltic Maritime · 24h
Vessel activity in the Baltic Sea, including sanctions-evading tankers
3202aircraft?ADS-B transponder data for military and government aircraft.
Military Flights · 24h
Russian military and government aircraft tracked near the Baltics
--Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
UNAVAILABLE
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Latvian Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for Latvia
Latvian Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Real-time electricity production vs consumption. Deficit = importing power
-207MW deficit
Prod: 646 MWCons: 853 MW
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Latvia.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events relevant to Latvia12 normal
| Category | Indicator | Finding | Conf | ↗ |
|---|
Threat Index History
How the overall threat score has changed — higher = more concerning
Signal Volume
How many data points we collected per day, by source type
RSSTelegramAISGPS JamOther
Indicator Breakdown
Daily count of security indicators by severity