Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
14 active18 stale32 sources
27
/ 100
→ StableYELLOW?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
ROUTINE
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
8 MOD16 LOW
Baltiysk naval✈0Brest garrison✈0Gusev garrison✈0Kamenka 138th MRB✈0Kronstadt naval✈0Luga 6th CAA✈0Ostrov airbase✈0Smolensk airbase✈0
16 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Information Operations?Coordinated multi-source campaigns with measurable cross-platform impact. Not individual editorial choices — actual coordinated influence activity.
none detectedNo coordinated operations detected in the last 30 days.
Narrative Pressure
6 elevated▴Russian state media, particularly RT and Pul Pervogo, selectively highlight Cole's statements to…11 src▴Russian state media consistently uses hedging language ('allegedly', 'as asserted') to cast doubt on…14 src▴Russian state media extensively covers Trump's statements, emphasizing his criticisms of NATO, his…15 src▴Cross-category injection: 9 signals amplified from social media into mainstream coverage9 src▴Russian state media, particularly TASS, fabricates a direct quote from Stubb stating that Europe…10 src▴2 outrage escalations from tass_ru, rt_russian in 8h4 src—Cross-category injection: 6 signals amplified from social media into mainstream coverage6 src—The key difference is the inclusion of the apology from a 'United Russia' deputy in the independent…14 src—Russian state media systematically omits any mention of farmer protests or public discontent…11 src
1149detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
0HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
34flagged vessels?Distinct AIS vessels flagged in the last 7 days: near monitored infrastructure, shadow-fleet tanker tags, or naval tags.
Baltic Maritime · 7d
Potentially relevant maritime activity near Baltic infrastructure
2134 total tracked34 near cables
64military aircraft?Distinct ADS-B aircraft tagged as military in the last 7 days.
Flight Tracking · 7d
Military and state-relevant aircraft observed near the Baltics
1058 total tracked64 military tagged
6Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
HIGH
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Latvian Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for Latvia
Latvian Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Nord Pool day-ahead electricity price
LV electricity: 67.7 EUR/MWh
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Latvia.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events relevant to Latvia12 normal
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