Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
14 active18 stale32 sources
28
/ 100
→ StableYELLOW?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
ROUTINE
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
8 MOD16 LOW
Baltiysk naval✈0Brest garrison✈0Gusev garrison✈0Kamenka 138th MRB✈0Kronstadt naval✈0Luga 6th CAA✈0Ostrov airbase✈0Smolensk airbase✈0
16 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Detected Operations · 30 days?Coordinated information operations detected by analyzing cross-platform signal patterns.
7 active🔍 Hostile framing of US envoy's statements to legitimize Lukashenko and downplay Ukraine…
HIGHRussian state media emphasizes the meeting between Lukashenko and Cole, highlighting Cole's statements that…
2026-03-2111 sources tracked
🔍 Omission of Russian involvement in shadow fleet activities
MEDIUMRT reports that Sweden intercepted the Comoros-flagged tanker Sea Owl I in the Baltic Sea, suspected of lacking…
2026-03-212 sources tracked
🔍 Systematic doubt-casting and downplaying of airspace violation
HIGHRussian state media reports that Estonia 'stated' or 'accused' Russia of violating its airspace, often using hedging…
2026-03-2114 sources tracked
🔍 Coordinated amplification of Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric to portray alliance as failing…
MEDIUMRussian state media extensively covers Trump's statements, emphasizing his criticisms of NATO, his doubts about allies'…
2026-03-2115 sources tracked
📡 Trusted media amplifies Russia-as-culture-weapon narrative across 3 Baltic categories
MEDIUMWATCH detected: score 5/12, organic_spread_102h + 3_categories + slow_cascade_24h
2026-03-219 sources tracked
🔍 Fabricated quote to portray US-Europe disunity
HIGHRussian state media focuses on Stubb's concern that the US is shifting its attention from Ukraine to Iran, and TASS…
2026-03-2110 sources tracked
🔄 Manufactured outrage: tass_ru/rt_russian creates 4-article reaction chain over…
MEDIUM2 outrage escalations from tass_ru, rt_russian in 8h
2026-03-214 sources tracked
📡 Widespread Mobile Internet Outages Are Lawful and Needed for… — Injection cascade:…
RESOLVED2026-03-216 sources tracked
🔍 Omission of official apology to control narrative
RESOLVED2026-03-2114 sources tracked
🔍 Systematic omission of public discontent regarding livestock culling
RESOLVED2026-03-2111 sources tracked
1149detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
0HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
34flagged vessels?Distinct AIS vessels flagged in the last 7 days by current rules: near monitored cables/infrastructure, shadow-fleet tanker tags, or naval tags. This avoids drowning the card in normal civilian shipping volume.
Baltic Maritime · 7d
Potentially relevant maritime activity in the Baltic, with emphasis on infrastructure-adjacent traffic
2129 total tracked34 near cables
64military aircraft?Distinct ADS-B aircraft tagged as military in the last 7 days. Total civilian transponder volume is shown only as context.
Flight Tracking · 7d
Military and state-relevant aircraft observed near the Baltics, not all civilian air traffic
1044 total tracked64 military tagged
6Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
HIGH
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Latvian Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for Latvia
Latvian Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Nord Pool day-ahead electricity price
LV electricity: 82.1 EUR/MWh
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Latvia.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events relevant to Latvia1 advisory11 normal
| Category | Indicator | Finding | Conf | ↗ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO | Naval Innovation Pact | 8 Allies to boost Baltic maritime tech integration | ●●○ | ↗ |
Signal Volume
How many data points we collected per day, by source type
RSSTelegramAISGPS JamOther
Indicator Breakdown
Daily count of security indicators by severity